Not investment advice. Risk information — not a recommendation and not a price forecast.
This week’s risk reading
Gauge percentile · before → after
Describes uncertainty over the horizon, not the direction of the price.
Gauge percentile: where today’s uncertainty falls within the asset’s own history. A higher tier means the probable range is wider than usual for this asset — not where the price is headed.The p10–p90 uncertainty band
The fan that WIDENS is the message: the further the horizon, the wider the range. It is a diagram of that widening, not a chart of prices over time: it has no price axis and no date axis.
How the range moved, up to this article
This is the real range we published on each past date, up to the day this article went out — not the fan above and not a forecast. Where a month had no published window it is simply left out; the strip is never filled in between.
Gauge percentile over the trailing months
The gauge-percentile series. The final mark is this month’s 53.3. It traces uncertainty, not price.
Did our previous band contain the price?
An after-the-fact calibration check. We look back to verify our bands do what they claim. It is not a price or direction hit — it is verifiable honesty.
The realized point falls inside the range of the band we drew. The range contained the value — it is not a price or direction hit, and the line is flat on purpose. It is a diagram of that containment, not a chart of prices over time: it has no price axis, no date axis, and the band does not widen, because we do not measure how the range grows with the horizon.
Of the last 43 p10–p90 bands for this asset, the realized price fell inside the range 88% of the time. A band well calibrated to 80% contains about 8 in 10 ranges; no more, no less.
Model consensus across the ensemble
Split means the models that responded do not share one reading. It is a neutral measure of agreement between models: neither good nor bad, and not an action on the asset.
AMZN Risk Gauge Tier Shift
The MarketChronos Market Risk Gauge shows a tier change for AMZN from red to yellow.
The MarketChronos Market Risk Gauge has recorded a tier cross for AMZN. The risk level is yellow. Previously, the tier was red with a percentile of 100.0. Following the gauge movement, the tier is now yellow with a percentile of 53.3. The confidence for this methodology is measured.
p10–p90 band: the uncertainty range over the horizon. Historically, nine times out of ten the price moved inside this fan. It is a range, not a prediction and not a target.What this does NOT mean
- It is not a signal to trade: it says nothing about entering or leaving the asset.
- It does not say where the price is headed: the band is risk, not direction.
- It does not attribute the move to any external cause the engine has not measured.
- An elevated tier describes high uncertainty, not a certainty about the future.
How this is calculated
MarketChronos Market Risk Gauge How we measure risk