Not investment advice. Risk information — not a recommendation and not a price forecast.
This week’s risk reading
Describes uncertainty over the horizon, not the direction of the price.
Gauge percentile: where today’s uncertainty falls within the asset’s own history. A higher tier means the probable range is wider than usual for this asset — not where the price is headed.The p10–p90 uncertainty band
The fan that WIDENS is the message: the further the horizon, the wider the range. It is a diagram of that widening, not a chart of prices over time: it has no price axis and no date axis.
Gauge percentile over the trailing months
The gauge-percentile series. The final mark is this month’s 7.7. It traces uncertainty, not price.
Insufficient data
We do not yet publish the after-the-fact calibration check for this asset. We show a reading only once the data supports it — never a fabricated figure.
Model consensus across the ensemble
Split means the models that responded do not share one reading. It is a neutral measure of agreement between models: neither good nor bad, and not an action on the asset.
BTC-USD Risk Gauge Tier Shift
The MarketChronos Market Risk Gauge indicates a tier change for BTC-USD from red to green.
The MarketChronos Market Risk Gauge has recorded a tier cross for BTC-USD. The risk level transitioned from a red tier to a green tier. This movement follows a percentile reading of 100.0, moving to a percentile reading of 7.7. The methodology used for this assessment is the MarketChronos Market Risk Gauge.
p10–p90 band: the uncertainty range over the horizon. Historically, nine times out of ten the price moved inside this fan. It is a range, not a prediction and not a target.What this does NOT mean
- It is not a signal to trade: it says nothing about entering or leaving the asset.
- It does not say where the price is headed: the band is risk, not direction.
- It does not attribute the move to any external cause the engine has not measured.
- An elevated tier describes high uncertainty, not a certainty about the future.
How this is calculated
MarketChronos Market Risk Gauge How we measure risk