Australian Dollar / US Dollar (AUDUSD=X)
Probabilistic risk range Market regime: Trendingcontext, not a buy signal. Everything here is risk, not direction.
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A range that contained the value, not a price or direction call. This looks back at whether the bands we published held — it is not a prediction.
Probabilistic risk range · p10–p90 band
From InferenceKey’s forecast engine. It is risk, not direction — a range of where the price could sit, not a prediction of where it goes.
- p10 (lower)
- 0.69
- Median (reference)
- 0.7
- p90 (upper)
- 0.7
p10–p90 band (80% target range) Median (reference)
80% target coverage of the band · 5-step horizon · relative width 1%Observed coverage 100% (target 80%)
Observed coverage runs above the 80% target (gap +20 points).
Calibration warns of the band’s reliability; it does not re-scale the band.
Asset risk
Band width relative to this asset’s own history.
7
Low uncertainty
Low <40 Medium 40–70 Elevated >70
This measures uncertainty.
Regime context
Williams’ Alligator state. Descriptive context on the trend backdrop.
Market regime
TrendingIt describes the trend backdrop (Williams’ Alligator).
Financial data
Objective market data for this instrument.
Financial data does not apply to this asset type.